Iran may face naval blockade in Arabian Sea

"Island Occupation" issues: will there be a worldwide show of force?

Sudhir Chadda
India Daily
March 15, 2005

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Iran is facing possible US Naval blockade. According to popular Radio shows in America, there is a strong rumor that US is going to put Navy fire power around Iran and stop Iran from selling any oil through the sea routes using merchant navies.

In the middle of this Iranians kept their hard word on Bush up. The naval blockade is designed primarily to stop Iran from delivering oil to other countries especially China.

According to sources, US wants to make Iran come to an understanding that they will not be allowed to have nukes. The million dollar question is what will be the impact of the naval blockade on Iranian economy?

Another major issue has come into focus. Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands will always belong to Iran, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said March 14. The Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) released a statement that backs the United Arab Emirates'' claim to the islands and calls Iran's presence an "occupation." The spokesman said the PGCC statement has no legal basis and will not help to remove the misunderstanding of a 1971 agreement on Abu Musa Island.

The island controversy with UAE will also put pressure on Iran. Iranians though are looking towards China for help. The Chinese are in deep-rooted contracts with Iran in getting oil delivered for the world's fastest growing economy. There are indications that China may throw in Veto power in favor of Iran in the UN Security council. The wild card is what will China do if and when Iran faces a naval blockade?

The other wild card is what will Iran do on the controversial island issues. But the most likely outcome is that the Europeans will be able to find a solution with the Iranians and avoid the all out war against Iran.