Climate change worse than predicted

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/s...86-952,00.html

November 15, 2007 03:00pm

A REPORT by Australian scientists has warned that the world is warming faster than predicted by the United Nations' top climate change body.

The report, prepared by Dr Graeme Pearman, former head of the CSIRO's atmospheric research unit, found temperatures and greenhouse pollution were rising faster than forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The report, prepared for the Climate Institute, noted that the IPCC's recent Fourth Assessment Report used material published up to mid-2006, but many important new observations had been published since.

"These suggest that the IPCC assessment is underestimating the risks of adverse impacts due to increased warming during this century and that impacts previously considered to be at the upper end of likelihood are now more probable," the report reads.

"Greenhouse emissions are rising faster than the worst-case IPCC scenarios."

The report found if current trends continue the world's temperature will rise approximately three degrees celsius by the end of this century, relative to pre-industrial temperatures - well above what are considered dangerous levels.

The IPCC reported the concentration of carbon dioxide had increased from a pre-industrial value of 280 parts per million to 379 ppm in 2005.

"The most recent data show that present-day carbon dioxide concentration is now over 382 ppm," the new report said.

The report also says that recent scientific work suggests the capacity for the land and oceans to absorb carbon dioxide emissions is declining.

Climate Institute chief executive John Connor said failing to act now to address climate change would pose the greatest risk to the Australian economy.

"All available economic research shows economic growth continues even with significant cuts to greenhouse pollution," Mr Connor said.

"This science report shows that it is even more critical than previously thought that we act quickly to reduce greenhouse pollution and make the transition to a clean-energy economy."

The Climate Institute is an independent body formed in 2005 to educate the public about climate change and promote practical solutions.