Top Iraqi Cleric Threatens To Peacefully Protest For A Timetable

Al-Sistani said to weigh pullout demand

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HAMZA HENDAWI
Associated Press
10/27/2005

NAJAF, Iraq - Iraq's top Shiite cleric is considering demanding a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. and foreign troops after a democratically elected government takes office next year, according to associates of the Iranian-born cleric.

If the Americans and their coalition partners do not comply, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani would use peaceful means such as mass street protests to step up pressure for a pullout schedule, according to two associates of the cleric.

The associates spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the media. They are in regular contact with al-Sistani and call routinely on the 76-year-old cleric at his home in the holy city of Najaf south of Baghdad.

The reclusive al-Sistani rarely leaves his home and limits his public comments to religious decrees, or fatwas. He has steadfastly refused to meet with any American officials since the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003.

But al-Sistani's influence among the majority Shiite community is vast, and a public call for such a timetable would put enormous pressure on Washington to comply.

On Dec. 15, Iraqi voters will select the country's first full-term parliament since Saddam's ouster. A new government will be formed afterward.

Vali Nasr, an expert on Shiites who lectures on national security affairs at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterrey, Calif., said al-Sistani's intention to call for a withdrawal timetable has been an "open secret" for some time.

"He will not do it in an anti-American way, but in a pro-Iraqi way," Nasr said.

Ahmed S. Hashim, a professor of strategic studies at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, R.I., said a public declaration by al-Sistani "will leave us without any legs to stand on in Iraq."

"But if we are made to withdraw prematurely, the country will plunge into civil war," said Hashim, who has visited Iraq several times since 2003.

Al-Sistani's influence on Iraq's Shiite community has already forced the United States to make major revisions in its political blueprint for the country. Last year, the Americans agreed to speed up their timetable for handing sovereignty back to the Iraqis and bringing forward the date for last January's election under pressure from al-Sistani.

Jawad al-Maliki, a senior official of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari's Shiite Dawa Party, said he had no firsthand information about whether al-Sistani was weighing such a call but suggested that if the cleric did, the party would support him.

Redha Jawad Taqi, a senior member of Iraq's biggest Shiite party - the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI - also said he could not confirm whether al-Sistani would demand a timetable. But he said his party would review the presence of foreign troops in Iraq.

Although the Bush administration has signaled it would like to begin drawing down its forces next year, it has refused to commit to a timetable. The administration has said a drawdown would depend on the success of the political process, including the December elections, and on the ability of Iraqi security forces to assume responsibility for battling Sunni Arab insurgents.

Al-Jaafari, a Shiite, and President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, have both warned against a U.S. pullout before Iraqis are ready to guarantee their own security.

But resisting an explicit call for a troop withdrawal by al-Sistani would risk alienating the Shiite community, upon which the Americans have relied for support in the battle against Sunni militants.

"Such a call also will add a new dynamic to Iraqi politics and create some common ground between the Shiites and Sunni Arabs," said Amr Hamzawi, a Middle East expert at Carnegie Endowments, a Washington-based think tank. "It also will shatter any misconceptions about al-Sistani's stand on the U.S. presence in Iraq."

The al-Sistani associates said the cleric is deeply suspicious of the United States, although he has encouraged his followers to avoid an open confrontation with U.S. forces.

His refusal to meet with U.S. officials has extended even to Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, an Afghanistan-born Muslim.

"He sees U.S. officials as symbols of the occupation," one associate said. "To meet with any of them could be used against him."

The associates said al-Sistani's suspicion of the Americans stems in part from the deep resentment many Shiites still hold for the U.S. decision not to intervene on their behalf in the 1991 uprising against Saddam following the Gulf War that year. Saddam's forces crushed that rebellion, slaughtering tens of thousands of Shiites.

Associated Press reporter Qassim Abdul-Zahra contributed to this report.