World Running Out Of Time For Oil Alternatives
World running out of time for oil alternatives
http://www.boston.com/news/world/eur...atives?mode=PF
By Anna Mudeva | August 18, 2005
PETTEN, Netherlands (Reuters) - The world could run out of time to develop cleaner alternatives to oil and other fossil fuels before depletion drives prices through the roof, a leading Dutch energy researcher said on Thursday.
Ton Hoff, manager of the Energy Research Center of the Netherlands, said it could take decades to make alternatives affordable to the point where they can be used widely, although high oil prices were already stimulating such research.
"If we run out of fossil fuels -- by the time the oil price hits 100 dollars or plus, people will be screaming for alternatives, but whether they will be available at that moment of time -- that's my biggest worry," Hoff said.
"That's why we need to use fossil fuels in a more efficient way to have some more time to develop these alternatives up to a level where the robustness is guaranteed and their price has come down ... This could take decades for some technologies."
Stubbornly high oil prices have renewed worldwide interest in sustainable energy sources, such as solar, wind and biomass as well as biofuels.
But the world currently covers just some two percent of its energy needs with renewables as high costs and mixed policy initiatives hinder a wide-spread usage.
"The high oil price makes people at least think about alternatives ... For us it's a definitely a stimulus to work even harder than before," Hoff said.
LOWERING COSTS
ECN, one of Europe's leading energy research institutes, is working to improve or develop new technologies to boost efficiency and lower the costs of power production from wind, solar and biomass, he said.
ECN researchers are trying to raise the energy conversion efficiency of solar panels to above 20 percent from the current 17 percent, while reducing costs.
"In 10-15 years, I expect that solar energy conversion could be in competition with electricity produced from coal," Hoff said. He believes the Netherlands has the potential to cover a large part of its power needs with solar energy.
ECN is also researching to increase the size of wind power turbines from the 3 megawatt a turbine produces now to 5 or 6 MW. This could be done by raising the height to 100 meters from 70 now and enlarging wings span to 120 meters from 90, he said.
ECN is also part of the $225 million "Global Climate and Energy Project" led by the U.S. University of Stanford and financed by General Electric, Toyota, Schlumberger and ExxonMobil.
The project aims to crack new technologies on fuel cells, which make electricity from hydrogen and emit only water vapor, energy production from biomass and separation and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2). The greenhouse CO2 gas is released when burning fossil fuels and is blamed for global warming.
Under the project, ECN will develop a new type of membrane reactor, which will separate CO2 during the process of producing hydrogen from fossil fuels, Hoff said. The CO2 could later be stored by companies in depleted gas or oil fields.
Hoff and other researchers say a transition to the so-called hydrogen economy could take decades as the cost of building new hydrogen-burning cars and power plants and storing CO2 are huge.
To test hydrogen usage in real life, ECN is in talks with the northern Dutch island of Texel to install hydrogen-based facilities, which would supply electricity to homes and offices.
"The idea is to see the pitfalls, fix them ... and prepare for the future. My hopes are that this will stimulate the usage of this type of new technology because it is extremely important to have it in real life rather than in laboratories," Hoff said.
© Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
some more political dancing
In U.S. Heartland, Anxiety Over Iraq, Oil
by Alan Elsner
In the solidly Republican state of Nebraska, voters are expressing deep anxiety about rising gasoline prices and the war in Iraq, a possible early warning sign for President George W. Bush in one of his most reliable strongholds.
When Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel (news, bio, voting record) traveled around his home state this week, citizens at every stop brought up Iraq policy and the inexorable rise in fuel prices.
"Is there anything the United States can do to get some stability in crude oil prices in the world, because it affects everything we do?" Larry Ahlers, a manager at medical device manufacturer Becton and Dickinson in Broken Bow, asked Hagel in one of dozens of such encounters.
Hagel, a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2008, responded that gasoline prices were likely to stay high for the foreseeable future because of rising world demand and the U.S. failure to develop new energy sources and conserve.
Earlier the same day in Lincoln, an elderly woman asked about Iraq. "Why are we there in the first place?" she asked.
On Tuesday in the central Nebraska town of Lexington, after a meeting with law enforcement officials on drug problems, three sheriffs expressed serious doubts about what the United States was doing in Iraq and whether it could succeed.
Hagel, a Vietnam veteran, acknowledged the U.S. military presence was becoming harder and harder to justify. He believes Iraq faces a serious danger of civil war that would threaten Middle East stability, and said there is little Washington can do to avert this.
"We are seen as occupiers, we are targets. We have got to get out. I don't think we can sustain our current policy, nor do I think we should," he said at one stop.
UNCERTAINTY, NOT PANIC
In an interview, Hagel said uncertainties over Iraq and oil prices fed off and reinforced each other.
"The mood is one of a certain sense of unsteadiness," he said. "I have sensed that since September 11, 2001. Our people have still not found an equilibrium and when you get these shocks, like gasoline at $2.50 a gallon and projecting natural gas costs doubling and tripling from what they paid last year, that further shakes them."
"I don't think there's panic, I don't think there's cynicism. I think there's this steady unsure sense about where is this all leading -- the constant daily reports on Iraq, our people being killed there, the money being spent there," he added.
Nebraska has been a solid Republican state in presidential elections for decades. Republicans dominate state politics and hold most elective offices.
But Hagel said even some who had previously backed Bush strongly on Iraq now felt deep unease.
"The feeling that I get back here, looking in the eyes of real people, where I knew where they were two years ago or a year ago -- they've changed," he said. "These aren't people who ebb and flow on issues. These are rock solid, conservative Republicans who love their country, support the troops and support the president."
Hagel said Bush faced a growing credibility gap. "The expectations that the president and his administration presented to the American people 2 1/2 years ago is not what the reality is today. That's presented the biggest credibility gap problem he's got," he said.
"I hope he has some sense that something's going on out in the country, that there's a lack of confidence that has developed in our position."
© 2005 Reuters