Anyone for a pool on Bush's October Surprise?

If you read the article by John Dean posted in another thread, you will see that he considers an October Surprise, meant to swing support for the president during mid-term elections, is an event most likely to occur. Given how we know how Bush operates - fear, fear, fear, here's a couple of bucks to make you happy, now vote for me - What October Surprises do you think might be out there?

Dean mentions 4:

1) Cheney resigns and becomes senior consular, Bush appoints new VP who would presumably bring more support to the Presidents (Dean mentions Guilianni, among others), and who can run for President in 2008.

2) Bush performs his first diplomatic coup by creating a UN backed unified front against Iran regarding Nukes.

3) The US strikes Iran to get the support of the rally-round-the-flag minions.

4) We 'capture' Osama.

Personally, I think number 3 - strike on Iran.

Anyone else have any ideas?

Maybe we can get a pool going.

My guess has always been that there's gonna be insane hype of war with Iran to help with elections, as with Iraq, but I think when it gets to zero hour, Bush ain't gonna pull the trigger because by that time the consequences would be too severe.