Rice Says Time Is Running Out For Iran To Suspend Enrichment

Rice Says Time Is Running Out for Iran To Suspend Enrichment
Says U.N. sanctions could have serious collateral effect on Iranian economy

http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/di...blehs0.6855127

By David Shelby
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington – The United States is willing to give European Union negotiator Javier Solana a bit more time to see if he can arrive at a solution that would draw Iran back into negotiations over its nuclear program before moving ahead with sanctions in the U.N. Security Council, but Iran’s time is running out, according to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

“It is important in keeping a coalition together to -- if people want to explore something that doesn't move you very far off course -- to go ahead and explore it. And I think you get into a stronger position that way,” Rice told the editorial board of the New York Post September 25.

Iran ignored a Security Council deadline of August 31 for suspending its uranium enrichment activities, a precondition for the resumption of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and discussions about possible international assistance in building an Iranian civilian nuclear energy program. (See related article.)

Iran repeatedly has claimed that civilian energy is the sole purpose of its nuclear program, but it has rejected offers of international assistance in building a civilian program free of a weapons-proliferation risk. Iran insists that it should be allowed to enrich its own uranium, but this technology easily could be used to develop weapons-grade fissile material.

In U.N. Security Council Resolution 1696, adopted July 31, the council stated that Iran faces international sanctions if it refuses to halt its nuclear program. (See related article.)

Since the deadline passed, Solana has been engaged with Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in an effort to convince Tehran to cooperate. Rice told the Wall Street Journal that the diplomatic effort is aimed at determining if there are any “reasonable” people within the Iranian government “that do not want to endure the kind of isolation that they're headed toward.”

“I hope it will work because, obviously, the best outcome here would be that the discussions with Solana allow the Iranians to suspend and then we can have comprehensive negotiations on their program and anything else that they'd like to bring up,” she told the New York Times.

She added, however, that these discussions could not last indefinitely because the credibility of the Security Council eventually would come into question. She said the moment for action, either on the part of Iran or the Security Council, is close. “And when you know whether or not there really is a negotiated path available, then I think you have more scope with allies to talk about what kinds of measures you really need to start to really have an effect on the Iranian program,” she said.

Rice acknowledged that the initial round of sanctions against Iran probably would not be as stringent as the United States would wish, given the need to work with numerous countries in drafting the resolution, but she said collateral effects of the sanctions would be significant.

“I wouldn't concentrate just on the language of the Security Council resolution and what it mandates, but rather, the collateral and secondary effects on Iran's standing in the international community and the choices that people start making both in the private sector and in governments about how to deal with that,” she said.

Under sanctions, Rice said, Iran would become a risky place to invest money and pursue business opportunities. She said this could be damaging to the Iranian economy, which is highly integrated into the global trading system. She said several major banks already have withdrawn from Iran.

The secretary dismissed the idea that U.S. policies in Afghanistan and Iraq have empowered Iran in the region. She said Iran now is sandwiched between U.S.-friendly governments and U.S. forces. She added that the new government in Iraq serves as a “counter-model” to Iran -- a nontheocratic, Shiite majority government, sharing power with Sunni and Kurdish minorities. She said the Iraqi government, with its ties to the holy city of Najaf, could claim a position of leadership in the Shiite world to which Iran never could aspire.

She added that there is a growing contingent of moderate states in the region that sees Iran’s ambitions as contrary to their interests. “So you know, yes, you can always describe a path by which Iran benefits from the current environment. You can also describe a path by which Iran's efforts to benefit from that environment create a backlash against it which I think you're beginning to see some elements of,” she said.

Rice predicted that the permanent members of the Security Council -- China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- would remain united in drafting a resolution on sanctions.

“I think the Iranians have been very surprised at how well this coalition has held together, and if they don't suspend they're going to be surprised again because I think we'll get a sanctions resolution,” she told the Post.