Kim Jong II's Absence Raises Speculation

Kim Jong Il's absence raises speculation

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060808/...NlYwMlJVRPUCUl

By KWANG-TAE KIM, Associated Press Writer Tue Aug 8, 10:09 AM ET

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korean leader Kim Jong Il hasn't appeared in public since his country test-fired missiles that drew international condemnation, leading to speculation of a possible sense of crisis inside the reclusive nation.

Kim attended a Russian art performance and visited a tire factory July 4, a day before the missile launches, and he hasn't appeared publicly since, according to South Korea's spy agency.

The North's propaganda machine hasn't reported on Kim's activities since the missile launches, but last week the country's official news agency said Kim sent a consolation message to ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro.

Kim usually visits military units a few times a month to bolster his "songun," or "military-first," policy that rewards the 1.1 million-member military with the country's scarce resources despite chronic food shortages.

Of Kim's 131 public activities last year, 70 events were military-related, according to South Korea's Unification Ministry. So far this year, 52 of 69 public activities were connected to the military, the backbone of Kim's totalitarian rule.

Some North Korea watchers have speculated that Kim might be in a bunker, since the country is believed to have imposed a quasi-war footing after the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution condemning the missile tests and calling for nations to stop any missile-related trade with it.

The North test-launched seven missiles July 5, including a new model believed capable of reaching the U.S. that failed shortly after takeoff.

Getting a clear picture of the isolated communist regime is extremely difficult, because it strictly controls media and denies nearly all outside access.

In 2003, Kim disappeared from the public eye for seven weeks when his hard-line regime quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the United States invaded Iraq.

Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea analyst at the independent Sejong Institute, attributed Kim's latest absence to massive floods in North Korea, saying he has shied away from the public in times of crisis in the past.

"Kim is refraining from public activities as he is in a serious internal crisis," Cheong said.

Last month's heavy rains in North Korea killed at least 549 people and left 295 others missing while flooding more than 48,000 acres of farmland and destroying nearly 4,500 homes, according to a pro-North Korean newspaper in Japan.

A senior South Korean intelligence official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of his position, didn't attach any significance to Kim's seeming absence, saying he often disappeared from public view.

"Setting up a 'bamboo curtain' is a basic governing ideology of communist North Korea," the official said, referring