View Full Version : Oil and gas shortages likely within 5 years: report

07-10-2007, 12:01 AM
Start making plans... This is really happening...


Oil and gas shortages likely within 5 years: report

Last Updated: Monday, July 9, 2007 | 2:13 PM ET

Consumers will see the beginnings of a serious global oil and gas shortage within two years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Monday.

The IEA predicts a combination of increasing world demand and inadequate supply from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations will lead to a global oil and gas crunch by 2012, but also says the signs will become obvious by 2009.

"Not only does oil look extremely tight in five years time, but this coincides with the prospect of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade," the energy security watchdog for the 26-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in an oil market report.

The Paris-based agency forecasts spare capacity (unused pumping capacity than can be immediately opened and sustained in a crisis) will plummet to "uncomfortably low levels," owing to increasing world population growth. Further compounding the problem, the IEA predicts other oil-producing nations will not cover the OPEC shortfalls.

While the agency does not forecast oil prices, the end result is clear: even higher prices at the pump.

A warning to OPEC

However, this oil shortfall may not be inevitable. One analyst says the IEA's ominous prediction is meant to warn OPEC nations, not panic consumers.

"The IEA has a political role as well as an economic role: the defense of the consumer," Thierry Lefrançois, an analyst with French bank Natixis told the Associated Press. "They are saying to OPEC countries, 'Look at where petrol consumption is going to be in 2012, so you will have to increase your production capacities faster than you planned.' "

However, Lefrançois says the IEA's warning should not be taken lightly. He finds the agency's predictions very plausible.

"If demand increases more than two percent a year we will have a major petrol crisis," he said.

Oil prices reached nearly one-year highs last week, rising three per cent from the June 29 settlement price of $70.68.

With files from the Associated Press

07-10-2007, 01:48 AM
Start making plans... This is really happening...

In other words buy as many gallons of gas now so you can sell it and make huge profits when the crisis hits

Just kidding.

Or am I?

07-10-2007, 10:28 AM
Joking aside, you make a good point. The response to this crisis is not going to be rational. There won't be a sudden rash of altruism at the last moment, to save the day. In fact, you're probably right: many people may decide to use as much gas as possible, if it appears a long-term shortage is on the horizon.

07-10-2007, 10:32 AM
Many people regularly talk about peak oil as a reason to invade the Middle East, but I wonder if Cheney also considers the short-term chaos of bombing Iran. I wonder if this impending shortage is actually a disincentive to bomb Iran, given the economic chaos that would follow an oil supply disruption of that magnitude?

In the past, I'm pretty sure neocons have said we could do without Iran's oil. If that's true, why do market types go apeshit over turbulence in Nigeria:


07-10-2007, 11:53 AM
First off, I am not advocating further consumption or suggesting that everyone go out and buy 12 SUV's.

That said, I doubt any of this has any truth to it. It's quite clear why we went after Saddam in the 90's...He was producing to much oil. We have all seen and heard the stories of how we supplied him with weapons in the 80's. Its not like we just handed them over free of charge. Those chemical weapons he used to gas the Kurds(at our direction) weren't cheap. We'll after the Iraq/Iran war was over, Saddam had to pay off that debt. How did he do it? Increase production of Iraqi oil. This in turn drove the price of oil/gas way down.(Remember $.90 for a gallon of gas? I sure do.) Saddam refused to follow the demand of OPEC(international Oil Cartel/Saudis) to decrease his production. Im sure there is no question here that the Saudis use the United States Military as their own.

Now were over there again...because we want to snap up one of the last oil rich reserves in the world? Hell no, because its the oil rich Iraqi land that everyone wants. Call it leverage, power, whatever. There is loads of Oil in the Middle east.

Now lets look at the Gulf of Mexico. I can't tell you how many reports and articles I have read about how much oil lies beneath that gulf. New drilling technology has allowed us to drill deeper and in branching directions. This had lead to the discovery of huge crude and natural gas reserves. Its well documented that that area of the globe sustained enormous populations of life(mainly Dinosaurs), as well as it being the outlet for the Mississippi river. From what I understand, there is more oil in the gulf then has been discovered world wide since the industrial revolution in the U.S. Being that it lies in our backyard, it remains under US control.

They just want everyone to think peak-oil is really happening. This will create turmoil, distractions, more war, poverty, etc.

We ain't playin' Checkers here folks.

07-10-2007, 01:59 PM
Good post Eckolaker. I don't subscribe to the whole panic inducing oil shortage either. Does that mean they wont create on to capitilize on it for any one of the reasons you listed? puh-leeze!. It's win win for them.

07-10-2007, 07:42 PM
See this game: